买点的选择是股市投资的重点问题,所谓“选股选时”,除了选股,就是选择买入时机了。买点的选择又是一个难点,新老投资者都会有这样的经历:选好了一支股票,看着它犹豫不决,不知道在什么时候是买入的最好时机。
买点的选择方法,是个见仁见智的问题,我们在这里看看欧大师是如何选择买入点的。
欧大师上来就举了一个“有柄的杯子”的例子

欧大师指出:在“有柄的杯子”这种形态中,正确的买人时机是在股票价格上升到比柄形区域(C、D、E点)的最高价格还高l/8处。虽然我们称该点为新高点,它实际上是突破柄形交易区域的新高点,通常比过去的实际高点(A点)略低。
简单地说,就是股价放量上升即将创出新高时,是最佳买入时机。
典型规则的“有柄的杯子”形态,在A股市场中也可以见到,例如:
图二,[中信证券]在2006年1月下旬—3月底的走势,就是一个比较典型的“有柄的杯子”,3月31日放量向上突破,形成欧大师主张的最佳买点。

图三,后来[中信证券]升幅巨大。
说到这儿,自然就会出来一个问题:为什么不能在杯形区城的底部(B点,也就是“坑底”)买人呢?
欧大师写道,他们会问:“为什么不在价格较低的时候早一点买进,这样不是能获利更丰吗?”
这是因为,除了这种“有柄的杯子”形态——也就是“单底”形态外,还会有“双重底”、“三重底”的形态出现。

图四,“双重底形态”。如果在第一个低点B点买入,可能还会出现第二个底点D点。
那么,能不能在第二个低点D点买入呢?不能,因为还可能出现第三个低点——“三重底形态”,甚至很多重底的形态:

图五,多重底形态。
欧大师不主张在低位买进,有两点原因:
第一点,第一课欧大师就说,买入后如果下跌8%必须止损。低位买入时,我们并不知道股票是否还会下跌,如果继续下跌,就要止损,所以必须等待更可靠的技术信号表明股价确实止跌并将大幅上涨时再买入。
第二点,欧大师认为股价在低位徘徊时,技术面上不能证明它将来会大幅上升,这时候买入的可能是一支不怎么样的股票。
欧大师说:我们并不希望用最低的价格买进一支上升空间可能不怎么样的股票,而是希望在最有利的时机买入一支价格会大幅上涨的股票,而这种可能性需要时间来验证。通过对过去股票的分析,我发现在基本面和技术面配合良好的情况下,在最佳买入点买入的股票不会跌去8%,并且最有可能充分展开价格上升运动,同时风险最小。
所以,欧大师主张——
任何股票的最佳买入点均位于其底部运动结束,股票价格创出新高之际。
在股票价格有效突破的当天,其成交量应较以往放大50%以上。也就是说,最佳买点是在股价经过回调整理,成交量放大50%以上(也就是量比大于1.5)股价即将创出新高之际。
在图一“有柄的杯子”——单底形态中,买点就是E点;在图四的双重底形态中,买点就是G点。
对此,欧大师在第10课中甚至提出了“逢高买入,更高卖出”的理论。他说:
你想要那些价格最具上升空间的股票吗?那么,你必须以“逢高买入,更高卖出”的理念来代替“逢低买人,逢高卖出”的理念。
看到这里,有朋友肯定会问:对于“低市盈率、确定增长”的个股,老拙不是主张“近期回调”时在低点买入吗?我们到底是听欧大师的,还是听老拙的?
是这样的,任何技术分析的方法都有其更适用的阶段性。我认为,欧大师“逢高买入”的买点选择方法,更适用于牛市初期和调整市;而我们常说的“逢低买入”的方法,更适用于牛市的上涨期。

在牛市初期和调整期,许多股票经过下跌股价很低,存在大量被低估的价值成长股。散户资金有限,哪只股票将来会涨得更快更高,应该先买哪一只股票呢?欧大师“逢高买入”的方法解决了这个问题。比如,2006年6月前后,A股市场进行了本轮牛市的第一轮中级调整。这时假如我们看好了[宝新能源]和[中信证券]两只股票,应该先买哪一支呢?按欧大师的方法“逢高买入”,你就会先买[中信证券],见下图:
图六,[中信证券]更早创出新高。
从这个例子中,我们可以对欧大师“逢高买入”的方法总结三点:
第一,“逢高买入”可以规避股票长时间在底部盘整时的等待。特别是新入市的投资者,这种盘整是很折磨人的,往往容易把心态搞坏,产生一种“等它涨过成本价就卖了”的心态,结果在即将创出新高时就开始卖出甚至全部,实际上这时正是股价大幅上涨的起点,是应该买入或者增持的。
第二,在牛市初期和调整期,越早结束底部盘整创出新高的股票,未来的涨幅通常越大。因为这表明它的卖压相对较小,看好的投资者相对更多。
第三,在牛市初期和调整期,先买入更早结束盘整创出新高的股票,待其上涨获利部分卖出再建仓后启动的股票,可以提高资金使用效率。在上例中,就是先买[中信证券],等一个月后[宝新能源]启动后,部分卖出获利的[中信证券],买入[宝新能源]。
所以,在牛市初期和调整期,按照价值成长基本面选择股票然后在低点买入死等就不是最好的办法,而应该按照欧大师的理论,优先买入更早创出新高的价值成长股。

但是,在牛市的上涨期,价值成长股调整的时间通常较短,这时候就可以在看好的个股短线下调时及时在低点买入。比如:
图七,[中信证券]在上涨过程中挖出了一个又一个的“坑”,在坑底B点买入后很快就会上涨,比在E点买入获利更大更快。
由于我们的模拟盘和实盘从06年10月开始操作,处于牛市的上涨期,因此“短线回调”买入就成为相对正确的选择。
当然,这时按欧大师的理论,在E点买入也无大错。但是要注意,欧大师说:“当股票价格超过其正确买点的5%时不应再追高”。从图七中我们看到,E点之后再涨5%,就有短线被套的可能

欧奈尔杯柄形态的扩展
    欧奈尔杯柄理论的买点,简单地说,就是股价放量上升即将创出新高时,为最佳买入时机。其实质都是主力在前期高点附近,考虑到前期高点套牢盘的压力,主动采取的一种洗盘行为,目的是为了走得更远,拉得更高。实际中有时分为二种情况:
    一是超强主力。在前期高点附近,通过横盘方式消化压力。股价在C区域横盘一段时间后,当放量突破C区高点时,即为买点。图中D点

二是强主力。在前期高点附近,对股价进行一定的打压,使股价有一定跌幅。这就形成了欧奈尔的杯柄形态。当放量突破C区高点时,即为买点。图中E点。

杯柄形态是一个牛性的持续形态。如它的名字所示,这个形态有两个部分:杯和柄。其中杯是在一段上涨后形成,看起来像个圆形底,当杯的部分完成后,出现一段盘整行情,这就是柄。当柄这段盘整行情被突破后,价格将延续此前的上涨趋势。
1、趋势:作为一个持续形态,杯柄形态前的趋势为上升趋势。理想情况下,这个上升趋势的时间为数月,还处于趋势早期。此前的上升趋势越成熟,那么该持续形态的成功率越低。
2、杯:杯的形态应该为U型,看起来像个圆底。一个V型的底部对杯柄形态来说太急促了。缓和的U型可以确认这个“杯子”是一个巩固阶段。完美的情况下,“杯子”两边的高度相等,但是大部分情况并不这样。
3、杯高:理想情况下,杯子的深度为此前上升趋势的1/3回撤幅度,或者更少。对于波动大的市场,这个回撤幅度可以为1/3到1/2。极端情况下,可以达到2/3。
4、柄:有时候,这个柄会以向下倾斜的旗形或者小三角形态出现,有时候则只是一个简单的小幅回撤。柄回撤的幅度可以达到杯上涨高度的1/3,最好不要超过这个幅度。柄回撤的幅度越小,该形态的牛性就越足,突破时表现得也越显著。
5、时间:杯子的形成时间可以为1到6个月,或者更长。柄的时间则为1-4周。
6、成交量:当柄突破时,应该有明显放大的成交量。
7、目标价:目标价可以为杯底部到杯右边波峰的距离。
与其它形态一样,最重要的是抓住形态的本质,而不是细节:杯柄形态中的杯子是一个碗状的巩固阶段,而柄是一个小回撤,随后出现一个放量的突破。

杯柄形态和圆弧底
      杯柄形态(Cup-with-a-handle) 是一种再上升趋势重显示买入信号的技术模型.股价先由高位回落,然后再从低位反弹到高位,形成杯形,然后再由高位下跌后迅速反弹,形成杯柄。这种策略基于O’NEIL创立的图形模式。通常杯子的底部应该有点圆,看起来象U字,而非急拉的V形,这样就是一个注底的时间.随后探底洗出一些投机者.所以再后面的上攻中,卖压不重.当然也有一些股票不做杯柄,直接拉升,就是我们所说的圆弧底。 
      “杯与杯把”价格形态属于一种重要的反转走势形态,它通常出现在一轮大幅上升之前,它的形成过程是这样的,首先股价出现下跌,然后进入盘整,最后见底回升,这样就产生了一个“杯”的形态,当完成这段回升走势之后,股价再度重演小幅下挫与回升走势,从而形成“杯把”的形态(参见例图1)。

在深入探讨“杯与杯把”这一交易技术以前,我们先来对这一形态本身进行剖析,并介绍一下它为什么会这样出现,接下来我们将探讨如何使用成交量来作为一个形态的确认指标,并建议投资者在何处设置建仓和止损盘。 
掌握这一形态
      要想更好地了解“杯与杯把”的功能是如何体现出来的话,我们首先来分析一下这一形态在不同的阶段其市场动力是如何变化的。当最初的下跌走势完成之后,股票交易进入了一个相持的阶段,这是股票的抄底猎手开始进场博反弹,而短线沽家和短线炒家也乐于在股价回升时卖出,最后多空双方均开始认同当前的价格水平,导致股价处于窄幅波动状态。
      例图1.显示的是典型的“杯与杯把”形态,首先股价出现下跌,然后是陷入盘整,接下来展开回升走势,最后完成回抽确认。
      不过,这一平静的格局通常不会持续较长时间,激进的炒家就会开始买进,试图在一个潜在的新一轮上升趋势来临之际强搭早班车,这样便产生了一个杯的右半部分,当这一回升走势接近杯的左半部分的上方时,那些有幸在盘局或股价刚开始突破时就抢得筹码的交易者开始获利回吐,同时那些在股价下跌以前就建立多仓的炒家也迫不及待地匆忙平仓,其结果便造就了杯把的诞生。 
      值得注意的是:依照推广这一形态的专家William O’Neil的观点,最佳的“杯与杯把”候选目标应当是那些已经做好强劲上升准备的股票,尤其是有可能价格翻倍的品种,这就意味着杯的左半部分实际上已经出现过较大幅度的调整了。
这一形态形成的周期与幅度
      一个“杯与杯把”形态的形成到底需要多长时间是值得探讨的,令人欣慰的是,不论形成周期的长短,这一形态都有良好的表现。我们觉得,一个标准的日线图“杯与杯把”形态,其下跌阶段(杯的左半部分)应历时二至三周,其底部阶段(杯的底部)应持续三至六周,其回升阶段(杯的右半部分)应需要二至三周,最后的杯把阶段应有一至二周的时间。假如还有其它理由令我们决定持有这一股票的话,我们也会考虑形成周期较长或较短的形态。
      与此相关的是,杯的深度也是具有争议性的,我们通常认为,一个标准杯的底部至少要比杯的左半部分高点要低20%,但不应超过40%,例如,若杯的左半部分高点为100美元的话,则杯的底部应当处于60美元(低20%)至80美元(低40%)之间。
      另外,整个市场的状况也会影响这一形态的标准深度,在通常情况下,我们倾向于在牛市中寻找回落幅度不大的“杯与杯把”形态,在熊市或深幅调整市中寻找回落幅度较深的“杯与杯把”形态,股票的表现通常受制于整个市场的平均水平。
      基本上,我们会将杯把形态的右半部分视作一次回抽的过程,这将意味着股价的回调幅度将局限在5~15%之间,有些交易者会比照杯的右半部分的深度来量度杯把,若按照这一标准,我们将会放弃那些杯把回调杯的右半部分幅度30%以上的相关形态(参见例图2),若杯把回调幅度过深,则不仅会断送一轮大型的上升行情,而且还有可能演变成新一轮下跌趋势的起点。 
      例图2.显示的是杯把的深度,理想的模式为,(A)点所对应的杯把部分所回抽的深度不应超过该股当前高点的5 ~ 15%或不超过杯底以来升幅的30%,跌幅过大的杯把将破坏这一形态,甚至有可能演变成新一轮的下跌趋势。

成交量
      虽然成交量并非这一形态构成的必备要素,但若一个“杯与杯把”形态中含有一个带有类似于杯与杯把形态的成交量指标会比没有好得多。理想的模式是当杯的左半部分开始形成时,成交量也同步作戏剧性的增长,表明交易者开始恐慌地抛售手中的股票,而在杯的底部成交量反而减少,说明交易者开始认同当前的价格水平,市场陷入盘局状态。
      在杯的右半部分形成阶段,一旦出现向上突破的走势,成交量又会再度出现增长的势头,为持续的上升提供能量,最后,在杯把形成阶段股价出现获利回吐时,成交量开始出现萎缩,在这一阶段若出现巨大的成交量,就要警惕这决不仅仅是一般意义上的获利回吐了,而是有可能出现新一轮的下跌。
      虽然成交量指标有助于“杯与杯把”形态的确认,但价格形态本身更为重要,由于成交量不会完全与价格走势亦步亦趋,因此不应简单地靠成交量来定义一个“杯与杯把”形态。 
      例图3. 作为一种理想的模式,在价格的走势中成交量理应与“杯与杯把”形态如影随形,不过需要留意的是,在杯的中部成交量是如何减少的,而在杯底(A)点展开突破走势时是如何增加的,以及在营造杯把期间又是如何减少的。

依据这一形态进行交易
      因为这一形态的右半部分之后将会出现回抽,因此我们倾向于按照回抽的走势来进行交易,一旦确认“杯与杯把”形态,就可以在略高于当前的股价水平之上建立头寸,例如在2天或3天的最高点之上建仓。当完成建仓操作后,我们还必须在不低于杯把底部的位置设置止损盘,这样就能够确保一旦杯把形态失效,所引发的损失被限定在一个较低的水平。 
      例图4,所显示的是建仓和止损盘的设置,当股价突破当前的高点后才建仓,这时该股票已经重纳升轨,此时建仓实为顺水推舟,假如股价跌破杯把的低点将宣告这一形态失效,此时在贴近杯把底部的下放设置止损盘可以将损失降至最低

例图5至例图7提供了一些有关“杯与杯把”形态的补充例子,从过去的市场上升过程中去寻找这一形态是尽快掌握这一形态的有效途径,这样一来,你就会发现有许多大幅上升的股价走势,在其启动之初总能够找到“杯与杯把”这一形态。提供了每隔两周更新一次的具有典型“杯与杯把”形态的股票清单。
      例图5.为道琼斯工业平均指数Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)的日线图走势,注意其中较小的“杯与杯把”形态实际上只是另一个更大的“杯与杯把”形态的组成部分而已。

例图6. 为Sanmina Corp (SANM)股票的日线图走势,科技股经常成为上佳的“杯与杯把”形态的候选品种,原因是投资者总是更乐于追捧这类股票

例图7.为United Technologies (UTX)股票的日线图走势,注意其杯把部分的回抽恰到好处,仅仅数日即宣告完成。

欧奈尔的杯柄形态理论(技术干货)
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