C=Current quarterly earnings per share,最近一个季度报表显示的盈利

大黑马的特征,就是盈余有大幅度的增长,尤其是最近一季。最好的情况,就是每股收益能够加速增长。虽然在A股有着“炒概念”“政策市”的陋习,但是近年来的牛股无不是有业绩支撑走出大行情的。2003-2005的云南白药股价翻三倍,蒙草生态2017年以来股价翻番,赢时胜18个交易日股价接近翻番,这样的个股比比皆是。自2016年以来,市场业绩导向在逐步加强,因此寻找业绩好的股票,这是我们要走的第一步。

“在牛市行情里,我喜欢大量买进每股收益增长率为40%~500%甚至以上的黑马股。既然你有成千上万的股票可以选择,为什么不选择投资那些最好的股票呢?”

A=Annual earning increases,每年度每股盈利的增长幅度

值得你买的好股票,应在过去的4-5年间,每股收益年度复合成长率达25%至50%,甚至100%以上。据统计,所有飙升股票在启动时的每股收益年度复合成长率平均为24%,中间值则是21%。最具代表性的是老板电器在2015年股灾后股价涨幅逾200%穿越牛熊。一只好股票必须是年度每股收益成长与最近几季每股收益同步成长。

N=New products,New management,New highs,新产品、新管理方法、股价创新高

公司展现新气象,是股价大涨的前兆。它可能是一项促成营业收入增加及盈余加速成长的重要新商品或服务;或是过去数年里,公司最高管理阶层换上新血液;或者发生一些和公司本身产业有关的事件。1953年至1993年美国股市能够大涨的股票超过95%出现这种情况。同花顺在2014年突破历史高点后7个月的时间涨幅近10倍就是最好的证明。

S=Supply and demand,该股票流通盘大小,市值以及交易量的情况

通常股本较小的股票较具股价表现潜力。一般而言,股本小的股票流动性较差,股价波动情况会比较激烈,倾向于暴涨暴跌,但是,最具潜力的股票通常在这些中小型成长股上。过去40年,对所有飙升股的研究显示,95%公司的盈余成长及股价表现,最高峰均出现在实收股份少于2500万股的公司中,流通股本越少越好,易于被人操纵,显然易于涨升。如果两只票甚至多只都集中在热点板块中,我们更倾向于盘子小的。这个原则不需要过多解释,2009年的中小板、2013年至2015年的创业板就是最好的诠释。

L=Leader or laggard,该股票在行业中的地位,是否是行业龙头

不买落后股,不买同情股,全心全意抓住领涨股。在你采用这项原则之前,要先确认股票是在一个横向底部形态,而且股价向上突破后上升尚未超过5-10%,这样,可以避免追进一只涨得过高的股票。领涨股的相对强弱度指数RSI一般不小于70,在1953年至1993年间,每年股价表现最好的500只美国上市股票,在真正大涨之时的平均RSI为87。股市中强者恒强、弱者恒弱是永恒的规律,一旦大盘跌势结束,最先反弹回升创新高的股票,几乎肯定是领涨股。所以,不买则已,要买就买领涨股。同样是区块链,龙头易见股份连续四天涨停,而其他概念股可能四天只有10%的涨幅。

I=Institutional sponsorship,该股票有无有力的庄家,机构大股东

股票需求必须扩大到相当程度,才能剌激股票供给需求,而最大的股票需求来自大投资机构。但是,一只股票若是赢得太多的投资机构的关照,将会出现大投资机构争相抢进、买过头的现象,一旦公司或大盘出现这种情况,届时竞相卖出的压力是十分可怕的。

知道有多少大投资机构买进某一只股票并不那么重要,最重要的是去了解操作水准较佳的大投资机构的持股内容,适于投资者买进的股票,应是最近操作业绩良好的数家大投资机构所认同的股票。欧奈尔建议:个人投资者应当投资于一下两类股票:一是那些至少由几家优秀的机构投资者(其业绩超过市场近期平均业绩)持有的股票;二是在最近几个季度内持有某只股票的机构投资者数量明显增多的股票。要充分利用机构认同这一因素,并将其作为决定是否买入一只股票时绝对重要的工具,在白马股吸引力开始下降之后,此前超级主力已经介入甚至已经成为前十大流通股东的成长股会不会是下一个风口?

M=Market direction,大盘走势如何,如何来判断大盘方向

你可以找出一群符合前6项选股模式的股票,但一旦看错大盘,这些股票约有七八成将随势沉落,惨赔出场。所以,必须有一套简易而有效的方法来判断大盘处于多头行情或是空头行情。市场上能够符合上述原则的股票仅在少数,而这些股票之中也只有2%的股票成为飙升股,但有的升幅能超过一倍,足以弥补由于选股不当造成的损失。投资者所要做到的是,买进选中的股票,订下你准备止损的价位(一般而言,在购进成本以下7%至8%绝对是止损的底线)。

在中国股市,威廉·欧奈尔的C-A-N S-L-I-M选股模式也是有效的,但是中国股市发展的时间还较短,投资者对有关的分析数据要做一定的调整。

CANSLIM 的实质是投资这样的股票:

基本面情况好,销售额和盈利增长很快,且这种增长是由公司推出的新产品或新服务带来的。

投资者应在过程中努力选择一个最佳买入点,即在突破前期平台,然而还未大幅度飙升的时候买入。

同时,要树立正确的市场观念。

如何用CANSLIM法则选股
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